NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – March 8, 2019 Forecast

James Hyerczyk
Updated

The New Zealand Dollar is trading slightly better early Friday as traders position themselves ahead of today’s February U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, due to be released at 13:30 GMT. After a week which saw the Kiwi pounded lower by 0.65%, traders are bracing for another day of potential volatility.

Most of the selling this week was being fueled by traders increasing their bets on a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. A weakening global economy also played a role in the selling. Today, it’s the U.S. economy’s turn to set the tone in the market place.

At 05:31 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6760, up 0.0005 or +0.07%.

Daily NZD/USD
Daily NZD/USD

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The next downside target is the February 12 main bottom at .6719. The NZD/USD is in no position to change the main trend to up, but nine days from the last main top at .6903 puts it inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.

The main range is .6592 to .6943. The NZD/USD is currently testing its retracement zone at .6768 to .6726. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair. It provided support on February 12 at .6719 and on February 22 at .6758.

On the upside, the long-term retracement zone at .6781 to .6825 is potential resistance.

Combining the two retracement zones creates a key pivot area at .6768 to .6781.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a 50% level at .6768.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6768 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is .6781. This level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the first target angle coming in at .6993. Since the main trend is down, look for sellers on a test of this angle.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6768 will signal the presence of sellers. The next major downside target is a price cluster at .6726 to .6723. Watch for counter-trend buyers on a test of this area. If .6723 fails then look for the selling to extend into a main bottom at .6719, a long-term uptrending Gann angle at .6707 and another main bottom at .6706. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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