Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Bouncing Back After Hitting More Than 3-Month Low
Natural gas futures are edging higher on Wednesday in what appears to be technically related buying. Although we could find out later in the day that it is related to a change in the near-term weather forecast. On Monday, prices gapped lower on both the daily and weekly charts, suggesting that the weakest long traders have finally been forced out of the market.
At 0904 GMT, March natural gas futures are trading $2.911, up $0.060 or +2.10% and nearby natural gas futures are at $3.015, up $0.075 or +2.555.
Nearby natural gas hit its lowest level since September 19 earlier in the session. Earlier in the week, sellers wiped out the entire winter season rally when they took out the bottom at $3.136.
March natural gas futures found support earlier in the session at $2.823, slightly above the September 14 main bottom at $2.810.
Short-Term Weather Forecast
According to NatGasWeather for December 31 to January 6, “A weak cool front will bring chilly conditions over New England to open the week, but quite mild over the rest of the east-central and southern US even as a weather system strengthens over Texas and the South with increasing rains, just without cold air. A more impressive cold blast will bring snow to the Rockies and Plains, with cold air into North Texas as well as highs only reach the 0s to 30s. Cold air with this Plains system will sweep across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the second half of the week for stronger national demand.”
Forecast
The early price action on Wednesday indicates the presence of technical buyers. These traders are reacting to potentially oversold conditions. Value buyers could also be present. They may like the fact that the market is trading at a three month low.
We may see a technical bounce from the test of these price levels, however, the market is far from changing the trend to up. Firstly, the market has to fill in the gap left on the charts on Monday before we can even begin talking about the upside. Secondly, as far as the March chart is concerned, buyers are going to have to overcome $3.241. Since the trend is down, we expect to see sellers return on a test of any resistance level.
Unless the cold returns, any rallies are going to be shorting opportunities.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
